Virginia’s State Elections in 2023 Could Hold National Implications for November 2024

Virginia – Virginia has established itself as a modern bellwether, boasting a near-flawless track record of selecting national election winners. However, before the spotlight shifts to national elections, the focus for voters and activists from both parties in the state is squarely on November 2023. This is when Virginia’s senators and representatives, serving in the State Senate and House of Delegates, will face reelection for the first time in four years, and the outcomes could reverberate into 2024.

Even Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin has emphasized his dedication to the state, notwithstanding rumors and the aspirations of some major donors for his presidential bid. Youngkin and other Virginia Republicans aim to maintain their majority in the state House while flipping the Senate to red, mirroring the national GOP’s ambition to regain control of the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate.

The results in Virginia over the next two months will significantly influence Youngkin’s national image and may play a role in his decision regarding a presidential run. Two years ago, Youngkin garnered national attention when his upset victory in the 2021 governor’s race was interpreted as a report card on President Joe Biden’s administration.

Both Democrats and Republicans understand the potential impact of Virginia’s odd-year elections on political momentum heading into 2024, and they are allocating resources accordingly.

National Investment in Virginia

The Democratic National Committee (DNC) recently invested $1.2 million in the state party, following President Biden’s directive. This investment marks a substantial increase, with DNC Chair Jaime Harrison emphasizing its significance not only for the 2023 elections but also for building the infrastructure needed to support the re-election of President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024. The DNC’s total investment of $1.5 million in Virginia is fifteen times what was spent in 2019, the last time both chambers were up for reelection.

The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) has also been actively engaged in Virginia since January, making significant contributions to the Virginia House and Senate caucuses, along with providing staff and resources. Their early investments aimed to bolster the state’s infrastructure for Democrats.

Virginia Republicans have not been left out of the influx of out-of-state funds. Billionaire Thomas Peterffy, known for his support of Ron DeSantis, contributed $1 million to Youngkin’s Spirit of Virginia political action committee in August.

With Virginia holding elections in odd years, the heightened national interest is expected, although this year, there is notably more national interest on the Republican side, largely due to Governor Youngkin’s active involvement.

Youngkin’s Presidential Prospects

The increasing national attention on Governor Youngkin from both parties has fueled speculation about his future political aspirations. Observers suggest that if he secures a victory in this year’s elections, he may consider entering the race for president. According to some, Youngkin’s softer and more approachable demeanor compared to other candidates could work to his advantage.

However, not all voters in Virginia are convinced that their governor is poised for a White House run, with some viewing him as a relative unknown in national politics. Virginia law prohibits consecutive terms for governors, often making the office a stepping stone for presidential or Senate campaigns. In a hypothetical 2024 Senate matchup between Youngkin and incumbent Senator Tim Kaine, polls indicate Kaine holding a 2- to 5-point lead over the governor.

Signs of Success

Governor Youngkin has already demonstrated early success by endorsing and securing victories for all six candidates he backed in the June primaries. While four of these candidates face competitive general elections, Youngkin’s influence has been a rallying point for Republicans in the state. Notably, Youngkin’s support has generated voter enthusiasm and financial contributions, solidifying his presence in Virginia’s political landscape.

As November 2023 approaches, the nation’s eyes remain fixed on Virginia, recognizing the pivotal role it plays in shaping political narratives and aspirations for 2024.