Initiatives Seek to Boost Defections and Disrupt Russian Military; U.S. Considers Supplying Ukraine With Advanced Cluster Munitions

KYIV, Ukraine – In a bid to encourage Russian soldiers to surrender and avoid further bloodshed on the battlefield, Ukraine has launched initiatives aimed at enticing defections from the Russian military. While a purported $2 million bounty for the delivery of a Russian MiG fighter jet to Ukraine has been dismissed as a “legend,” the “I want to live” program seeks to dissuade Russian soldiers from fighting, ultimately disrupting the Russian military apparatus.

Ukraine Defense Ministry spokesman Andriy Yusov clarified the situation, stating, “There will be a reward,” while downplaying the sensationalized $2 million claim. The “I want to live” program has yielded a notable success story in operation Sinitsa, where Russian pilot Maksym Kuzminov, 28, was enticed into flying a Russian Mi-8 helicopter to Ukraine. Kuzminov reportedly received a reward of approximately $500,000 for his decision.

The program’s objective is to reduce casualties and deter Russian soldiers from continuing hostilities. Such efforts align with Ukraine’s broader strategy to regain occupied territory and thwart Russian aggression.

Developments:

• Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin conveyed his congratulations to Rustem Umerov on his appointment as Ukraine’s defense minister, reinforcing unwavering U.S. support for Ukraine and providing updates on security assistance.

• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy affirmed the nation’s military advances in his recent address to the nation, emphasizing the pivotal role of Ukrainian heroism in shaping the war’s outcome.

• Ukraine Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar reported the reclamation of approximately 2 square miles of occupied territory in the south, including segments of the volatile Donetsk region, over the past week.

U.S. Contemplates Enhanced Cluster Munitions Supply to Ukraine

Ukraine’s success employing U.S.-provided cluster munitions has prompted the Biden administration to consider supplying Kyiv with more potent and rangier cluster munitions. This decision could significantly bolster Ukraine’s capabilities in striking deeper into Russian-occupied territory with greater force.

Currently, Ukrainian forces employ 155 mm artillery with an 18-mile range and a maximum capacity of 48 bomblets. The proposed weapons under consideration are the Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS), boasting a range of over 190 miles and capable of delivering 300-plus bomblets, and Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System missiles with a 45-mile range, equipped to disperse 400 cluster munitions.

U.S. officials have hinted that either one or both of these advanced cluster munition systems could soon be dispatched to Ukraine, providing an invaluable advantage in the ongoing conflict.

Countdown for Ukraine’s Counteroffensive

Ukraine faces a critical timeline of approximately 45 days to execute its counteroffensive effectively before weather conditions become a hindrance to military operations. Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, emphasized the challenges posed by impending cold weather, which may impede Ukrainian forces’ maneuverability.

Gen. Milley acknowledged that the counteroffensive has progressed more slowly than anticipated, emphasizing the long-term nature of the conflict. Despite challenges, he affirmed that Ukraine’s military continues to make steady progress in its efforts.

Kremlin Expects Return of Russians Abroad

The Kremlin anticipates the return of Russians who left the country at the outset of the conflict. Factors contributing to this expected repatriation include the strengthening Russian economy and “negative economic trends” in host nations. Russia’s enduring economic resilience amid external pressures has reinforced its appeal to Russian expatriates.

While estimates of the number of departing Russians vary widely, the repatriation trend could potentially impact Russia’s economic trajectory as it looks to rebuild internally.

Putin and Kim Jong Un’s Anticipated Meeting

Reports indicate that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is set to rendezvous with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Kim’s luxury armored train, traditionally characterized by its bulletproof design and relatively slow speed, has reportedly departed Pyongyang for Vladivostok, Russia.

The White House has acknowledged the anticipated meeting between the two leaders, with Moscow seeking North Korean support and cooperation in the context of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The meeting, the first overseas trip for Kim in over four years, could transpire as early as Tuesday.