“18 Competitive Districts Where Biden Won in 2020, but Republicans Seized House Seats in 2022 May Determine Future House Control”
In a political landscape where control of the U.S. House remains far from settled, 18 unique congressional districts have emerged as pivotal battlegrounds that could ultimately sway the balance of power in the 2024 election. These districts, scattered across the nation, are characterized by their distinctive purple hue—regions where President Joe Biden secured victory in 2020, yet Republicans clinched or retained House seats in the 2022 midterm elections. According to the Cook Political Report, most of these areas are designated as “toss-ups” heading into the 2024 election, signifying their competitiveness and potential for either party to emerge victorious.
With these 18 races in play, the outcome could determine whether Democrats regain control of the House in 2024 or if Republicans successfully defend their slender majority. These politically diverse districts are distributed across several states:
California: Besides California’s 27th Congressional District, which encompasses northern Los Angeles and re-elected Republican Rep. Mike Garcia in 2022, four other districts in the state share the same pattern of voting for Biden in 2020 and opting for a Republican representative in 2022.
New York: The Empire State boasts the largest share of these pivotal districts, with six spread across regions stretching from Long Island to Syracuse.
Arizona: Arizona is home to two such districts: the 1st Congressional District in northeast Phoenix and the 6th District in the southeast, encompassing parts of Tucson.
Other States: The remaining five districts are situated in Nebraska near Omaha; northern New Jersey; the southern outskirts of Portland, Oregon; eastern Pennsylvania; and southeastern Virginia, including Virginia Beach.
While some of these districts are currently categorized as leaning or likely Republican by the Cook Political Report, one exception stands out. Republican Rep. George Santos’s district, encompassing sections of Long Island and Queens, leans in favor of Democrats. This tilt is not necessarily an endorsement of left-leaning policies but could be attributed to the controversies surrounding Congressman Santos, who faced federal charges, including fraud and lying to Congress. Allegations against him included transferring campaign donations into personal accounts and committing unemployment insurance fraud. Despite these challenges, Santos declared his intention to seek re-election in April, leading to a crowded field of Democratic and Republican candidates vying for his seat.
The 2022 midterms saw Republicans sweep all four congressional districts in Long Island, including Santos’s. However, with the 2024 elections still over a year away, neither party has established a clear advantage in the race for House control.
These 18 divided districts represent some of the most fiercely contested races for House seats and are among the 33 districts targeted by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee for potential shifts to the left. In some cases, the 2020 election was marked by voters’ apprehension regarding the re-election of then-President Donald Trump, prompting them to vote against him while supporting other Republican candidates. As the 2024 election approaches, these districts are poised to play a pivotal role in shaping the future political landscape, with heightened voter turnout anticipated during a presidential election year.